标题: Understanding the impact of cultivated land-use changes on China's grain production potential and policy implications: A perspective of non-agriculturalization, non-grainization, and marginalization

作者: Lu, D (Lu, Dan); Wang, ZP (Wang, Zhanpeng); Su, KC (Su, Kangchuan); Zhou, YJ (Zhou, Yajuan); Li, XX (Li, Xinxin); Lin, AW (Lin, Aiwen)

来源出版物: JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION卷: 436文献号: 140647 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.140647提前访问日期: JAN 2024

摘要: Cultivated land plays a pivotal role in ensuring national food security. The challenges of non-agriculture, nongrain production and the marginalization of cultivated land have become increasingly pronounced in the context of urbanization and industrialization in China, posing potential threats to long-term food security. This study employs a combination of remote sensing and statistical data to reveal the effects of non-agriculturalization, nongrainization, and the marginalization of cultivated land on grain production potential (GPP) at the grid scale. From 1992 to 2020, the total farmland area initially exhibited an ascending trend followed by a subsequent decline, resulting in a net decrease of approximately 0.84% in China. the northward shift in the center of gravity of cultivated land has accentuated the spatial disparity between grain production and consumption. Nonagriculturalization, non-grainization, and marginalization of cultivated land contributed 35.22%, 22.58%, and 42.20% to the GPP loss, respectively. GPP loss exhibited significant differences across the agroclimatic zones, with the combined loss in the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain exceeding 60% of the national total. Cultivated land marginalization has emerged as the most impactful land-use change affecting GPP, leading to a substantial loss of approximately 11471.30 x 104 t. The affected area is predominantly concentrated in the southern region. The marginalization of cultivated land has not been effectively alleviated, and the expansion trend continues. Conservation endeavors targeting cultivated land should prioritize enhancing farmers' willingness to cultivate, curbing the extensive utilization of farmland, and mitigating the escalating trend of farmland marginalization.

作者关键词: Land -use change; Food production; Cropland protection; China

地址: [Lu, Dan; Wang, Zhanpeng; Zhou, Yajuan; Li, Xinxin; Lin, Aiwen] Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

[Su, Kangchuan] Southwest Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Chongqing 400715, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Lin, AW (通讯作者)，Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

电子邮件地址:aiwen_lin_whu@163.com

影响因子：11.1