标题: Estimation of maize yield incorporating the synergistic effect of climatic and land use change in Jilin, China

作者: Wen, XY (Wen, Xinyuan); Liu, DF (Liu, Dianfeng); Qiu, ML (Qiu, Mingli); Wang, YJ (Wang, Yinjie); Niu, JQ (Niu, Jiqiang); Liu, YL (Liu, Yaolin)

来源出版物: JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES  卷: 33  期: 8  特刊: SI  页: 1725-1746  DOI: 10.1007/s11442-023-2150-6  出版年: AUG 2023  

摘要: Yield forecasting can give early warning of food risks and provide solid support for food security planning. Climate change and land use change have direct influence on regional yield and planting area of maize, but few studies have examined their synergistic impact on maize production. In this study, we propose an analysis framework based on the integration of system dynamic (SD), future land use simulation (FLUS) and a statistical crop model to pre-future maize yield variation in response to climate change and land use change in a region of central Jilin province, China. The results show that the cultivated land is likely to reduce by 862.84 km(2) from 2030 to 2050. Nevertheless, the total maize yield is expected to increase under all four RCP scenarios due to the promotion of per hectare maize yield. the scenarios, RCP4.5 is the most beneficial to maize production, with a doubled total yield in 2050. Notably, the yield gap between different counties will be further widened, which necessitates the differentiated policies of agricultural production and farmland protection, e.g., strengthening cultivated land protection and crop management in low-yield areas, and taking adaptation and mitigation measures to coordinate climate change and production.

作者关键词: maize yield forecast; land use simulation; RCP scenarios; models

地址: [Wen, Xinyuan; Liu, Dianfeng; Qiu, Mingli; Wang, Yinjie; Liu, Yaolin] Wuhan Univ, Sch Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 400072, Peoples R China.

[Liu, Dianfeng] Minist Nat Resources, Key Lab Digital Cartog & Land Informat Applicat En, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China.

[Niu, Jiqiang] Xinyang Normal Univ, Key Lab Synergist Prevent Water & Soil Environm Po, Xinyang 464000, Henan, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Liu, DF (通讯作者)，Wuhan Univ, Sch Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 400072, Peoples R China.

Liu, DF (通讯作者)，Minist Nat Resources, Key Lab Digital Cartog & Land Informat Applicat En, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China.

电子邮件地址: liudianfeng@whu.edu.cn

影响因子:4.9