Title: Modeling Urban Spatial Expansion Considering Population Migration Interaction in Ezhou, Central China

Authors: He, JH (He, Jianhua); Li, C (Li, Chun); Huang, JL (Huang, Junlong); Liu, DF (Liu, Dianfeng); Yu, Y (Yu, Yan)

Source: JOURNAL OF URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT Volumes: 145 No.: 2 DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000503  Published: JUN 1 2019

Abstract: Against the background of rapid social and economic reform, urban space systems are unceasingly reconstituted. Population migration, which is a popular social phenomenon, has become an important driving force affecting China's urbanization and regional spatial restructuring. However, the previous studies on urban spatial expansion focused more on socioeconomic influences, seldom paying attention to population migration interaction. In this context, this paper proposes an integrated urban spatial expansion model considering the population interaction (UEMCPI) to simulate the collaborative development process of an urban area. The UEMCPI model combines multiple models with cellular automata (CA) to obtain the population migration interaction in a spatially explicit way and embeds the interaction into transition rule of the CA model. Ezhou, a typical city in central China, was taken as a case study to conduct the simulation of urban spatial expansion. The results show that population migration interaction plays an indispensable role in modeling urban spatial expansion, and the proposed UEMCPI model has better performance in simulating a collaborative urban development. The prediction indicates a continuous expansion of urban land in Ezhou through 2022, especially in certain new districts that have been delimited by regional planning. A polycentric urban development of the city of Ezhou will be highlighted in the future. More attention should be paid to population migration for guiding regional sustainable development.

WOS: 000464579200005

Document Type: Article

Language: English

Authors’ key words: Urban spatial expansion; Population migration interaction; Cellular automata model; Spatially explicit approach; Ezhou; China

Keywords plus: Cellular-Automaton Model; Social Network Analysis; Land-Use; Logistic-Regression; Future Scenarios; Simulation; Policy; City; System; Growth

Addresses of reprint authors:

[Li, C ] Yunnan Univ, Asia Int Rivers Ctr, Kunming 650091, Yunnan, Peoples R China.

[Li, C] Yunnan Univ, Yunnan Key Lab Int Rivers & Transboundary Ecosecu, Guanxi Rd, Kunming 650091, Yunnan, Peoples R China.

E-mail:

[He, Jianhua; Huang, Junlong; Liu, Dianfeng] Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, 129 Luoyu Rd, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China.

[He, Jianhua; Liu, Dianfeng] Wuhan Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geog Informat Syst, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China.

[He, Jianhua; Liu, Dianfeng] Collaborat Innovat Ctr Geospatial Informat Techno, 129 Luoyu Rd, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China.

[Li, Chun] Yunnan Univ, Asia Int Rivers Ctr, Kunming 650091, Yunnan, Peoples R China.

[Li, Chun] Yunnan Univ, Yunnan Key Lab Int Rivers & Transboundary Ecosecu, Guanxi Rd, Kunming 650091, Yunnan, Peoples R China.

[Yu, Yan] Wuhan Univ Technol, Sch Resource & Environm Engn, 120 Luoshi Rd, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China.

Addresses: lichun1020@whu.edu.cn

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